Currently 20th (2 pts from 2 matches). Expected points 6.8. Remaining matches simulated (2026-10-23). Conference League standings →
The model gives Riga FC a 4% chance of the top 8 (straight to the round of 16), 54% of finishing in the top 24 (at least a play-off) and 46% of going out. Currently 20th (2 pts from 2 matches). Expected points: 6.8. The 36 matches played keep their real score; the rest were simulated 4,000 times (2026-10-23) with the simulator's model: Poisson goals driven by team ratings.
Riga FC's 6 opponents: Kairat Almaty, Pafos FC, FK Jablonec, Kauno Zalgiris, Atalanta, Borac Banja Luka (3 home, 3 away).
In the UEFA Conference League league phase (6 matches, at most 18 points) 13 points are enough for the top 8 and 8 points for the play-off places (9-24) 90% of the time. 12 points give about an even chance of the top 8, 7 of the top 24. Source: 4,000 simulated league phases of the PredictLeague model, played matches included (2026-10-23).
Enter your scores for Riga FC's matches in the simulator; every other match is simulated 1,000 times and you see Riga FC's likely position and top 8 / play-off chances straight away.