Currently 2nd (6 pts from 2 matches). Expected points 12.2. Remaining matches simulated (2026-10-23). Conference League standings →
The model gives FC Lugano a 63% chance of the top 8 (straight to the round of 16), >99% of finishing in the top 24 (at least a play-off) and <1% of going out. Currently 2nd (6 pts from 2 matches). Expected points: 12.2. The 36 matches played keep their real score; the rest were simulated 4,000 times (2026-10-23) with the simulator's model: Poisson goals driven by team ratings.
FC Lugano's 6 opponents: Crvena Zvezda, Getafe, Kauno Zalgiris, FK Jablonec, FC Copenhagen, Sint-Truidense (3 home, 3 away).
In the UEFA Conference League league phase (6 matches, at most 18 points) 13 points are enough for the top 8 and 8 points for the play-off places (9-24) 90% of the time. 12 points give about an even chance of the top 8, 7 of the top 24. Source: 4,000 simulated league phases of the PredictLeague model, played matches included (2026-10-23).
Enter your scores for FC Lugano's matches in the simulator; every other match is simulated 1,000 times and you see FC Lugano's likely position and top 8 / play-off chances straight away.